New Rochelle, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXUS61 KOKX 250526
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
126 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore overnight into Friday. A frontal
system approaches Friday night and moves across Saturday. One
cold front moves southeast of Long Island Saturday evening. A
secondary cold front moves across early Sunday. High pressure
then builds in through early next week. High pressure shifts
well offshore towards the middle of next week with a frontal
system moving towards the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure continues to move offshore overnight. Light
southerly flow turns more southwesterly in response to the
exiting high pressure to the east. With height rises and
increasing 850 mb temps overnight, expecting overnight lows to
stay mild. Lows only drop into the mid-50s for most, with a few
lower 50s for eastern most sections closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Friday, southerly flow continues. Temperatures will be warm yet
again with highs in the 70s to near 80, particularly inland,
with the cooler spots along the coasts.

A frontal system approaches on Friday, leading to increasing clouds
through the day. Friday night a warm front passes, increasing
showers across the CWA. Some timing discrepancies still exist with
the timing of the cold front, but expecting it to pass late in the
day or early evening Saturday. With strong lift and some hints of
instability in the available 12Z guidance, expecting a slight chance
for isolated thunderstorms with showers located along or just ahead
of the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon and evening.
About 0.5-1.0" are expected Friday night through Saturday
evening. No major hydrologic issues are expected.

Warm temps overnight Friday are expected due to the cloud cover and
warm air advection from the passing warm front. Overnight lows will
be in the mid-50s to low-60s. Saturday will be cooler thanks to
rainfall and a nearing cold front. Highs then will be in the mid-60s
to low-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong upper level low approaches Saturday night and moves across
early Sunday. This slowly moves towards Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Upper level ridge then builds in across the
region for Sunday night through early next week. This will
eventually give way to quasi-zonal flow for mid to late week.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to be exiting southeast of
Long Island Saturday night. Increased POPs compared to previous
forecast as another trough or secondary cold front moves across
early Sunday. This will be accompanied by a steepening pressure
gradient as parent low deepens as it moves through Maine. Rain
showers linger Saturday night and then decrease late Saturday night
into early Sunday. NW winds will increase and become gusty with cold
air advection. Highest instability relatively speaking will be
shifting southeast of the region so left out mention of thunder
Saturday night after 8PM.

Steep pressure gradient remains through Sunday. With cold pool aloft
with upper level low moving across, some more rain showers will be
possible. Models indicate mainly dry conditions but manually
increased POPs to slight chance. Also went higher than model
forecasts with cloud coverage with cyclonic flow aloft. Used
relatively cooler Superblend for the daytime high temperatures,
which will be limited to upper 50s to lower 60s with the gusty winds
and abundance of clouds the first half of the day.

For next week, warming trend is evident in the forecast models with
the ridging developing across the area. Consistent model 850mb
temperature warming by the end of each day Monday into Tuesday.
Expect a sharp rising trend to daytime high temperatures each day.
Much of the region is in upper 60s to mid 70s for highs Monday and
well into the 70s to near 80 for Tuesday. Used specifically the NBM
50th percentile for high temperature forecasts on Monday and
Tuesday, which were relatively warmer compared to NBM alone.

Uncertainty grows for mid to late week depending on the evolution of
an approaching frontal system. The ridging moves offshore and quasi-
zonal flow will help steer this frontal system towards the region.
The system may linger nearby towards latter portion of week. Chances
for showers and perhaps even an isolated thunderstorms are in the
forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Chances for rain showers
forecast to continue into next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore through Friday. A frontal system
will impact the terminals Friday night into Saturday.

VFR through 00z Saturday. Conditions should then begin lowering
to MVFR 02-06z with IFR becoming likely early Saturday morning.
There is a chance for LIFR conditions late Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Showers are possible in the evening, but
will become widespread overnight.

SW winds will continue to weaken early this morning and should
be under 10 kt after 08z. SW winds increase after day break and
shift towards the S-SE the rest of the morning into the
afternoon. Speeds will become 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt
possible, especially away from the immediate coast. Gusts should
end in the evening, but S-SSE sustained winds 10-13 kt likely
continue.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts at KEWR, KLGA, and KTEB may be occasional this afternoon.

Timing of lowering flight categories and SHRA tonight may be
off by 1-3 hours. LIFR conditions possible early Saturday
morning.

LLWS possible at KJFK and KLGA with SW winds 45-50 kt at 2kft
Saturday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: IFR/MVFR with showers in the morning. Showers possible
with an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
S-SSW gusts 15-25 kt, becoming W-NW late day/evening. LLWS
possible, mainly east of the NYC metro terminals.

Sunday: VFR. NW gusts 25-30 kt possible.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A few locations near shore are experiencing gusts up to 20 kt
for a few more hours during the overnight, otherwise Sub
advisory conditions expected through Friday night. Marginal
small craft advisory conditions are expected for the near shore
non-ocean waters Saturday ahead of and with the frontal
passage mainly for 25 kt gusts, with 5 to 6 ft seas on the
ocean waters by Saturday afternoon.

For Saturday night, SCA conditions mainly for ocean seas, mainly
near 5 to 6 ft, with otherwise mainly below SCA conditions. Then for
Sunday, expecting widespread SCA wind gusts for all waters. Ocean
seas trend down to 4 to 5 ft Sunday. SCA wind gusts diminish Sunday
evening with eventually all waters below SCA Sunday night. All
waters remain in the forecast below SCA Monday through Tuesday
before SCA conditions make their return Tuesday night, mainly for
the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JE/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR